CLM-VITALSIGNS-001·hypothesis·open
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Q-063M-008 · Civilizational Resilience, Memory & ContinuityT-013 · Civilization Resilience & Catastrophic Responsescientific
文明是否存在可测量的‘生命体征’与失稳前兆，并能支持提前干预？
This is a canonical research question in the X-LAB three-layer agenda. It connects upward to an era theme and millennium question, and downward to claims, evidence, experiments, systems, decisions and reality feedback.
Current evolution state
This state is deterministically derived from public / graph-safe authoritative projections. It is not a new source of truth or a scientific confidence score.
READINESS 0%
Research state
No evidence yetNo public Research OS evidence object linked yet.
Execution state
Not exportedMission Control has no public graph-safe mission projection for this question.
Decision state
Not exportedNo permission-safe YICE Decision has been exported for this question.
Reality state
Not exportedNo graph-safe YOUNION project, pilot, collaboration or outcome has been exported for this question.
Biggest current gap
No authoritative Research OS evidence object is publicly linked to this question yet.
Next critical move
Define or link the first evidence-bearing experiment or Research Package before making stronger claims.
Current claims & evidence
Claim status and confidence are provisional research judgments, not truth labels. Evidence may support, challenge or provide context.
Falsification-oriented experiment protocols
These are experiment designs, not results. Claim status can change only after preregistration, execution and a distinct result/evidence record.
EXP-VITALSIGNS-CLAIM-001·CLM-VITALSIGNS-001·proposed·preregistration required
Civilizational Vital Signs Historical Lead-Indicator Study
构建跨国家、跨时期的信任、制度响应速度、基础设施冗余、信息污染、资源集中等时间序列，在不使用未来信息的条件下测试其对重大制度失稳、基础设施中断和社会冲击的领先预测能力。
Primary metric
跨样本预测增益、预警提前期、校准度与跨地区稳健性
Supports
组合指标在留出样本上持续优于简单基线，并能提供具有行动价值的提前期。
Challenges
组合指标对留出样本无预测增益，或结果主要由单一事后变量驱动。
Inconclusive
历史数据缺失、指标定义不可比或事件标签高度主观。
• 文明失稳不是单一可定义事件。
• 相关性预警不能自动解释因果机制。
Supported relationships
containsera_theme
Civilization Resilience & Catastrophic Response
Era theme contains this canonical research question.
Exploreproposesclaim
Composite measures of social trust, institutional response speed, critical-infrastructure redundancy, information pollution and resource concentration may provide leading indicators of civilizational instability.
Research question proposes or tracks this explicit epistemic claim.
Explorerelated toprogram
Civilization World Model & Decision Systems
Q-063 links civilization vital signs to decision systems.
ExploreCONTRIBUTE
Bring a resource that can move this question forward.
Experts, researchers, institutions, data, facilities, pilot environments and research funding can enter the ecosystem around this canonical ID.
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